10%, . The authorities do not plan to extend the validity of the state program, emphasizing changes in market conditions. In turn, the experts warn of potential risks.
Mortgage: prospects to 2018
Representatives of the Ministry predicts a significant decline in mortgage rates in the short term. At the end of 2017 the level of interest rates can drop below 10%, which is the lowest value in history. Previously, mortgage rates did not fall below 12%, however, after the economic crisis increased significantly.
Government support has provided a reduced rate of 12%, which allowed to avoid a sudden collapse of the mortgage market. During the crisis, lending rates rose to 15-20%, which has become unbearable burden for those wishing to get a mortgage. Including officials stimulated demand in the real estate market, which after the outbreak of the crisis, which has seen better days. State support helped to restore the positive dynamics of Texas mortgage lenders, which indicates the high efficiency of this tool. The fall in mortgage rates was caused by the actions of the Bank of US. The main factor reducing the cost of mortgages remains the policy of the Central Bank, which consistently adjusts the basic rate. The controller responds to the deceleration of inflation and the stability of currency rates, while continuing to reduce the key rate. In such circumstances, the program of state mortgage will not be renewed for 2018.
Analyst Michael Mashchenko noted the positive impact of the Central Bank policy on the development of the mortgage market. Further rate cuts will be provided with fundamental factors, with the restoration of growth of the domestic economy and the stability of oil prices. While commercial banks are willing to a corresponding decline in mortgage rates. In addition to the adjustments of the rates, experts expect a significant increase in lending volumes. But some analysts warned of a possible increase in interest rates, if in 2018 will cease to operate the program of state mortgage.
The revival of lending: new opportunities and potential threats.
Domestic banks continue to increase the volume of Texas mortgage lenders. By the end of 2016, the volume of mortgage loans rose to 1.5 trillion rubles (growth by 26.7%). However, market volume does not reach the indicators of 2014 when this figure was exceeded RUB 1.7 trillion at the same rate in December fell to 11.55%, which is the minimum value over the previous 5 years. A year earlier this figure was closer to the target of 13%. In addition, the demand in the market warm up the statements of officials, who regularly emphasize the profitability of mortgage loans? Experts say the impact of external factors on the dynamics of the national economy. Including a significant impact on the macroeconomic indicators having the fluctuation of oil prices. The export of oil provides the lion’s share of budget revenues, and in the case of new falling of the prices further rate cuts, the Central Bank will be threatened.
Analyst Alexei Antonov questioned the lower rates to 10%, because the actual correction rate of the Central Bank will significantly lag behind government forecasts. Low oil prices put pressure on economic performance. In addition, the regulator takes into account the expected weakening of the US currency, leading to inflation. Average interest rates in the mortgage market subject to government support will remain at 12%. However, the abolition of the state program will result in a substantial increase in the cost of credit resources, predicts Antonov. As a result, mortgage rates will add 1-1.5%. The result would threaten the recovery of demand in the property market that will impede economic growth. In the case of the deterioration of the economic situation and rising inflation, the authorities will be forced to prolong the term of the programme. Dynamics of the mortgage interest at commercial banks determine up to what date may be extended, the program of mortgage with state support. If the cost of borrowing will exceed 12%, the government will be forced to renew the preferential program. The government has no plans to extend government support of mortgages for the year 2018 due to economic factors. In the near future loan rates will be below 10%, which will be the absolute minimum for all history. Reducing the cost of mortgages due to the actions of the Central Bank, which continues to reduce the key rate. Despite the optimism of officials, experts assume an increase in mortgage rates to 13.5% without any support from the state. Ultimately, the government will be forced to extend the deadline for the program.